Funnel math
Funnel metrics explained
You do not need a dashboard full of charts. Six numbers tell you whether a funnel works and how much you can spend to grow it.
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A funnel is a chain of small yeses. Funnel math is just multiplying those yeses together and seeing what each visitor is worth. Once you know that, you know whether to fix the pages, the offer or the traffic.
The six numbers
| Metric | Formula | Tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Opt-in rate | Leads / visitors | Whether the first page and its promise work |
| Lead-to-sale rate | Buyers / leads | Whether the follow-up and offer work |
| Average order value (AOV) | Revenue / orders | What bumps and upsells add |
| Earnings per lead (EPL) | Revenue / leads | What a new subscriber is worth |
| Earnings per visitor (EPV, or EPC per click) | Revenue / visitors | What one click of traffic is worth |
| Break-even cost per lead | EPL after costs | The most you can pay for a lead |
A worked example
These are made-up round numbers to show the arithmetic, not benchmarks or a forecast:
- 2,000 visitors reach the opt-in page.
- 25% opt in: 500 leads.
- 3% of leads buy a $27 product: 15 buyers, $405.
- 5 of the 15 add a $10 order bump: $50. Average order value is $455 / 15 = $30.33.
- Earnings per lead: $455 / 500 = $0.91. Earnings per visitor: $455 / 2,000 = $0.23.
Card fees come off the top. At Stripe's standard 2.9% + 30ยข per successful card charge, the 15 orders (10 at $27 and 5 at $37 with the bump) cost about $17.70 in fees, leaving about $437 before tools, ads and refunds.
What to fix first
- Low opt-in rate: the promise or the traffic is wrong. Test a new headline, or check that the traffic source matches the freebie.
- Good opt-ins, few sales: the emails or the offer. Is the offer the logical next step after the freebie? Is the price explained?
- Sales but low AOV: add an order bump that fits, then consider a one-click upsell. See the tripwire funnel.
- Everything fine, not enough of it: more traffic, which is where break-even cost matters.
How much can you pay for traffic?
If each lead earns $0.91 in the first month, paying $1.50 per lead from ads loses money in month one. That may still be fine if customers buy again later, but only spend on that assumption once you have seen repeat purchases in your own numbers. Start with a break-even target based on the first 30 days.
Do not forget the fixed costs
Your funnel tool is a fixed monthly cost. On a $0 plan, all of the margin is yours; on a $97 plan you need enough sales to cover it first. Systeme.io's paid plans are $17, $47 and $97 a month, and ClickFunnels starts at $97 a month billed monthly, per their pricing pages.
Run your own numbers in the funnel calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good conversion rate for a sales funnel?
There is no universal number. It depends on the traffic source, price and audience. Compare your funnel against itself over time and change one thing at a time.
What is EPC?
Earnings per click: total revenue divided by clicks (or visitors) sent to the funnel. Affiliate networks often report it per 100 clicks.
Should I count refunds?
Yes. Subtract refunds from revenue before you calculate earnings per lead, or your break-even ad cost will be too high.
Sources
Prices, plan limits and rules were checked on October 27, 2026. Vendors change plans often; confirm on their sites before buying.